![Analyzing the Analysts, Episode Two [Feature]](http://images.mefeedia.com/entries/6811241/video_120.png) Analyzing the Analysts, Episode Two [Feature]
from Kotaku
February 22, 2008
Monday's feature took a broad, anecdotal look at ten different analysts, explaining a little about who the analysts are and what they do. For your enjoyment and discussion, we present to you today all of the predictions made by the analysts and our verdict on each of them. There's been some changes to these results since the original article was released on Monday, due to the availability of new information. While this does change some of the numbers, it also indicates how fluid many of these predictions are, and the challenge of pin-pointing exact answers for many of them, both for journalists, traders who rely on the analysts for smart business choices, and gamers who want to know how well the industry is doing. Here's the proof that being correct the most often doesn't always mean you're the best analyst.Michael Pachter - Wedbush Morgan June 4, 2007 Prediction: Take-Two will push back the release of Grand Theft Auto IV to the next financial year. Outcome: TRUE The release date of GTA IV was pushed back all the way to April 2008. June 12, 2007 Prediction: In May 2007, the Wii will outsell the PS3 4 to 1, with the Wii selling 400,000, the PS3 selling 100,000, and the Xbox 360 selling 225,000. Outcome: FALSE The Wii did indeed outsell the PS3 4 to 1, but Pachter's sales predictions were a little high. The real numbers were Wii: 338,000; PS3: 82,000; and Xbox 360: 155,000 in the US. July 10, 2007 Prediction: Microsoft will announce a price cut of $50-$70 at E3 2007. Outcome: FALSE No price cut happened at E3. Microsoft said they were comfortable with their price point, and didn't see a need to follow the way of the PS3. September 5, 2007 Prediction: As the supply of 60GB PS3s dries up, the 80GB model may well be reduced to $499. Outcome: TRUE Right again. Consumers saw a drop in the price of the 80GB PS3 to $500 in October 2007. September 14, 2007 Prediction: Halo 3 will drive the sales of the Xbox 360, which could exceed selling 400,000 units in September 2007. Outcome: TRUE Microsoft sold 527,800 Xbox 360s in the US during September, doubling the number of consoles sold in a month. Pachter also predicted in the same article that 3 million copies of Halo 3 would be sold in the first twelve days. Between September 25 (its release date) and October 5, Halo 3 was estimated to sell just over 5 million copies. December 10, 2007 Prediction: There will be a 24% jump in November software sales from 2006 ($804 billion) to 2007 (estimated $1 billion). Outcome: TRUE Software sales from November 2007 in fact exceeded market expectations, reaching $1.3 billion. December 14, 2007 Prediction: The previous December sales record is $1.7 billion, which will be shattered December 2007, likely in excess of $2 billion. Outcome: TRUE Mr. Pachter got it right on with this one. December 2007 saw sales revenue of $2.37 billion. December 14, 2007 Prediction: Unreal Tournament III, MX vs ATV Untamed, and the PS2 version of Rockband will top December sales. Outcome: FALSE TRUE Pachter was right about one thing: Guitar Hero III for the PS2 took #3 in December sales, selling 1.25 million units. But how wrong he was about UT3 and Untamed, which saw disappointing sales. The winners for December were instead Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare for Xbox 360 with 1.47 million units sold, and Super Mario Galaxy for Wii, selling 1.4 million units. EDIT: Pachter has contacted me to make a correction to this prediction. He said that his prediction were those would be the top three games released in December, not top three sellers for the month. So it looks like Pachter gets another point, after all! December 19, 2007 Prediction: Mass Effect will be coming to the PS3. Outcome: FALSE Sony has come out and made a statement that there is currently no Mass Effect in the works for PS3. They said it's possible... but don't hold your breath. December 25, 2007 Prediction: John Woo will want to make more video games, as that's what action movie directors want to do now. Outcome: TRUE As out to left field as this prediction sounds at first, Pachter may be on to something. I'm not sure about all action film directors, but the success of Stranglehold has certainly put John Woo in the mood for video games. Woo founded Tiger Hill Entertainment in 2003, and has said he intends to continue bridging the gap between video games and films, particularly with his upcoming video game and film releases for Ninja Gold, a project he is working on with video game creator Warren Spector. Accuracy: 6/10 7/10 Colin Sebastian - Lazard Capital Markets May 17, 2007 Prediction: A new PSP will be unveiled by Sony in 2007. Outcome: TRUE September 2007, consumers were introduced to the redesigned PSP slim, just like Sebastian said (although his prediction came out after months of speculation that Sony had something in the works). May 25, 2007 Prediction: Wii shortages could last through the 2007 holiday season and into 2008. Outcome: TRUE Despite meeting Sebastian's monthly target of 1.5 million units made and sold, Nintendo still suffered shortages for the second holiday season in a row. August 21, 2007 Prediction: The PS3 will outsell the Xbox 360 in July 2007. Outcome: FALSE Not Sebastian's Prediction Sorry Mr. Sebastian, no dice. While sales of the PS3 jumped from 98,500 units in June 2007 to 159,000 units in July 2007, it wasn't enough to conquer the Xbox 360, which sold 170,000 units that month. EDIT: Sebastian contacted me to clarify that while he said the PS3 would sell more and the Xbox 360 would go down, he never said that the PS3 would outsell the 360. September 13, 2007 Prediction: Halo 3 will generate $200 million in revenue "very quickly". Outcome: FALSE While Halo 3 didn't make $200 million in 24 hours like many were expecting (only $170 million, how sad), Sebastian only says "very quickly." I could walk to the corner store "very quickly," but that could mean 5 minutes or half an hour, it's all relative. By the end of its first week, Halo 3 had made $300 million in revenue, which I'd still call "very quickly," but not the 24 hour blitz that most interpreted Sebastian's words to be. October 2, 2007 Prediction: GameStop will be the real beneficiary of holiday video game sales, with total holiday revenue reaching $1.42 billion. Outcome: FALSE TRUE Sebastian's estimate was nearly $1 billion off the mark, as GameStop raked in $2.3 billion during the nine-week holiday period. EDIT: The prediction made by Sebastian was referring to the Q3 earnings, not the holidays - despite the fact the prediction article doesn't distinguish this. Sebastian was much closer to the actual Q3 earnings, at $1.6 billion. October 11, 2007 Prediction: September 2007 will see a 30 percent increase in software sales from September 2006. Outcome: FALSE It was certainly close. Thanks to sales from Halo 3, software sales rose from $446 million in September 2006 to $550.5 million September 2007. A significant $104 million increase, for sure, but that's only a 23.4% increase from the year before - not quite the 30% that Sebastian said it would be. October 31, 2007 Prediction: In addition to Wii shortages, PS3 and Xbox 360 consoles will also be in short supply. Outcome: FALSE Not Sebastian's Prediction Sony and Microsoft both saw improved sales of their consoles during the holiday season, neither would be considered hard to come by or in any sort of shortage. The Xbox 360 didn't see the strain on supply until after the holidays. EDIT: Sebastian clarified that the article containing this prediction was misleading, and he never predicted a shortage in PS3s. December 13, 2007 Prediction: Wii will top hardware sales, although PS3 and Xbox sales will improve going into the holidays due to price reductions. Outcome: TRUE Despite supply setbacks, the Wii came out on top in hardware sales, moving 1.35 million units over Holiday 2007. Xbox 360 had a record month of sales, too, selling 1.26 million units, up 11.5% from the previous holiday season. The August price reduction certainly helped, as weekly sales improved from that month onward. The PS3 also saw a much-improved holiday, as it was up 62% from its sales at the same time last year, selling 797,000 units. This was also due in part to price drops in July and October, as well as the introduction of the 40GB model. December 13, 2007 Prediction:Activisions November sales will double. Outcome: FALSE While there is no specific data for the month-on-month increases from Activision, we can compare Activision's Q307 improvement from Q306. They almost doubled revenue, from $142.8 million in 2006 to $272.2 million. Very close, but close only matters in horseshoes and hand grenades. December 13, 2007 Prediction: Electronic Arts will see a 15-20% increase in sales in November, thanks to sales of Rockband, The Orange Box, and The Simpsons Game. Outcome: TRUE In the Q3 report, EA boasts that Orange Box and Rockband drove its 'strongest ever quarterly performance', and The Simpsons Game sold 4 million copies, and is what EA claims to be the 'highest rated entertainment-based game of 2007'. While the company did see a net loss of $33 million, they did see an increase in net revenue over Q307, jumping from $1.281 billion last year to $1.503 billion this year, a 17% increase. Accuracy - 4/10 5/8 Jesse Divnich - The simExchange August 17, 2007 Prediction: The PS3 will sell 165,000 units in July. Outcome: FALSE The PS3 only sold 159,000 units in July. September 4, 2007 Prediction: The 80GB PS3 will drop in price by $100 to $499 in order to stay competitive in the North American environment. Outcome: FALSE While at first it looked like it would be Japan only, the 80 GB PS3 saw a price drop in North America late October. October 17, 2007 Prediction: The Wii will sell 485,000 units in September, despite the competition from Halo 3 and the Xbox 360. Outcome: TRUE The Wii sold better than estimated, moving 501,000 units. October 19, 2007 Prediction: The PS3 will sell 153,000 units in October. Outcome: FALSE The PS3 only sold 121,000 units in October. October 20, 2007 Prediction: The price cut of the PS3 will not affect its overall market share (i.e. it will remain in last place of all the consoles). Outcome: TRUE The price cut helped move more PS3s, going from 121,000 units in October to 466,000 units in November, but it still lagged behind all other available consoles - heck, the PS2 still sold 496,000 units in that same month. November 9, 2007 Prediction: Activision will be the top third party publisher over Holiday 2007. Outcome: TRUE Activision's title Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare topped sales charts in November and December. November 9, 2007 Prediction: Super Mario Galaxy will sell 2 million units in November, and 1.99 million units in December (both in the U.S.). Outcome: FALSE Super Mario Galaxy sold 1.12 million copies in November, and 1.4 million copies in December. November 9, 2007 Prediction: The Wii will sell 466,000 units in October, 806,000 units in November, and 2.2 million units in December (US sales). Outcome: FALSE The Wii sold 519,000 units in October, 981,000 units in November, but only 1.35 million units in December, likely due to the limited availability. November 9, 2007 Prediction: US December software sales will surpass $2.2 billion. Outcome: TRUE Software sales totaled $2.37 billion in December. January 15, 2008 Prediction: Hardware sales for the US in December will be as follows: Wii - 1.73 million units; Xbox 360 - 1.45 million units; PS3 - 854,000 units. Outcome: FALSE The Wii sold 1.35 million, the Xbox 360 sold 1.26 million, and the PS3 sold 797,600. Accuracy: 4/10 Evan Wilson - Pacific Crest Secuities January 24, 2006 Prediction: Europe won't get the PS3 until March 2007. Outcome: TRUE This shouldn't be terrible impressive, since he predicted this the day before the official announcement was made, but that hasn't stopped analysts from being wrong in the past. Wilson was correct (for once) about the European release date, as the PS3 went on sale in Europe on March 23, 2007. August 21, 2006 Prediction: The high price point of the PS3 will not dissuade consumers, and it will sell out during the holiday season (2006). Outcome: FALSE Oh, how wrong he was. While the Wii sold out both Holiday 2006 and 2007, PS3s were still readily available both years, especially pre-price cut. March 12, 2007 Prediction: Availability of the Wii will not improve until April 2007. Outcome: TRUE The Wii shortage finally saw hope in April, with the announcement of a Wii shipment the week of April 24. April 3, 2007 Prediction: The PSP was not selling well due to the higher price point, and the price reduction should help fix that problem. Outcome: TRUE Following the price drop, Sony claims they have seen a 90% increase in PSP sales since the price drop came into effect. June 11, 2007 Prediction: May 2007 will see sales figures increase to $320 million, up 12% from the year before. Outcome: FALSE Wilson's predictions were a little short. Software sales were up 33.2% from the previous year to $380.8 million. July 5, 2007 Prediction: Microsoft is likely to lower console prices closer to the holidays, while Sony might not be inclined to cut console prices any time soon. Outcome: FALSE Ouch. Just four days after saying that the PS3 wouldn't be seeing a price cut in the near future, Sony announce they're dropping the price of their 60GB model by $100. Bad call, Wilson. And I'd hardly call the August 8 price cut of the Xbox 360 close to the holidays, so I'm thinking that Wilson was pretty wrong on both counts. November 5, 2007 Prediction: The Guitar Hero franchise alone could provide $200 million in growth for Activision. Outcome: FALSE - AT LEAST ACCORDING TO HIMSELF Just over a month after Wilson predicts Activision's growth based on Guitar Hero, he shows concern that Activision will have troubled growth, despite first week earnings by Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock of $115 million, which kind of negates his earlier prediction, doesn't it? November 15, 2007 Prediction: A new Nintendo DS is waiting for release when the sales of the DS Lite trail off. Outcome: FALSE Nintendo has openly discredited this claim, and called the rumours "utter speculation". I'd check my sources next time, Mr. Wilson. November 15, 2007 Prediction: EA will cut prices on 14 of its most popular sports franchises in time for the Holiday 2007 shopping season. Outcome: FALSE Despite the sluggish sales of a number of EA Sports titles, including Madden 08, no price cut actually occurred. It was a good suggestion, but not one that EA was prepared to take. January 14, 2008 Prediction: December 2007 will have sales 26% higher than December 2006. Outcome: FALSE Ooh, so close! Normally I'd give Wilson the point, because he was only off the percentage growth by a teensy 2%, but Michael Pachter was able to call it exactly right at 28%, and I feel I should give credit where credit is due. December 2007 saw a total revenue of $4.82 billion dollars. Accuracy: 3/10 Mike Hickey - Janco Partners May 17, 2006 Prediction: The cost of making games for the PS3 could alienate some third party publishers. Outcome: TRUE Third party publishers were alienated because of the cost (and the fact that the PS3 was floundering throughout 2007), so Sony did something about it and cut the cost of developer's kits. July 24, 2007 Prediction: In Q208, EA will execute a "quantifiable cost reduction plan." Outcome: TRUE EA decided to do this in the form of restructuring the company (i.e. layoffs) eluded to in their Q2 earnings report and announced late October/early November. October 16, 2007 Prediction: The drop in box office sales can be blamed on the launch of Halo 3, and could last for several weeks. Outcome: FALSE Turns out people just didn't like the movies that were out there. In a look at the weekend box office returns of the top 10 movies for each weekend, movies were struggling even before Halo 3's launch: in the four weeks of September (Halo 3 being launched before the last weekend), the revenues were approximately $63 million, $61 million, $76 million, and $73 million. As for the four weekends of the October box office: $61 million, $81 million, $72 million, and $82 million. Of course, once the holiday movies hit in November, box office returns jumped: $124 million, $95 million, $92 million, $142 million, and $69 million. Even Halo 3 couldn't stop the onslaught of holiday movies and their subsequent box office returns. October 16, 2007 Prediction: Holiday 2007 will see a shift away from the casual Wii games market to the hardcore gamer 360 market. Outcome: FALSE The top ten titles sold during the holidays did not contain what most would consider games for the hardcore gamer. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare snuck in down the bottom at number ten, but the rest of the list is the standard fare of Mario, brain training, and Wiimote-waggling. October 29, 2007 Prediction: Activision's key fiscal game sales for Q208 and 2H08 will come from Spiderman 3, Shrek 3, Transformers, Guitar Hero, Tony Hawk, Call of Duty 4 and Enemy Territory: Quake Wars. Outcome: FALSE Activision's top titles for Q208 were Guitar Hero II (Xbox 360), Guitar Hero: Rock the 80's (PS2), Spider-Man 3, TRANSFORMERS: The Game, and Shrek the Third. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare was the top-selling title of December, so it's fairly safe to say that it will be a moneymaker for Activision, too. But due to the release of Skate around the same time as Tony Hawk, the sales of Tony Hawk will likely not be as high as Activision would hope. October 29, 2007 Prediction: There will be significant sales of Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare during the holiday period. Outcome: TRUE Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare topped sales charts in December, selling 1.47 million copies. I'd call that significant. November 26, 2007 Prediction: Video game sales will help motivate overall holiday sales. Outcome: TRUE If online sales are any indication, video games were a big driving force during the holiday retail season. Online purchase of video games, consoles, and accessories saw a 129% growth in sales from the previous year. January 4, 2008 Prediction: Holiday sales are expected to be around $2.027 billion for GameStop. Outcome: FALSE Gamestop sales were even higher than anticipated, reaching over $2.3 billion. January 4, 2008 Prediction: There's no reason to think video game sales would be weak over the holidays. Outcome: TRUE From Gamestop racking up over $2.3 billion to online video game sales increasing by 129%, it's safe to say that video game sales were strong. January 4, 2008 Prediction: Price target for GameStop (around the holidays) is $68. Outcome: FALSE At no point between Nov.1 and Dec. 31 did Gamestop's stock reach $68. The highest point it hit was $63.77 on December 7. Accuracy: 5/10 Jeetil Patel - Deutsche Bank November 12, 2006 Prediction: Nintendo will sell approximately 1.5 million Wiis in the US by the end of 2006. Outcome: FALSE The Wii had only managed 1.1 million life-to-date sales by the end of 2006. November 16, 2006 Prediction: The Xbox 360 will do better than the PS3 in Holiday 2006 sales. Outcome: TRUE The Xbox 360 sold 1.1 million units in December, while the PS3 only sold 490,000 units. November 16, 2006 Prediction: Activision and UbiSoft will benefit the most from holiday sales. Outcome: FALSE UbiSoft didn't see any of their titles in the top 10 list for December, November 16, 2006 Prediction: Nintendo will have the biggest retail presence this holiday. Outcome: TRUE The DS was the top selling hardware with 1.6 million units, the Wii was the second-highest selling home console with 604,200 units, and four games in the top 10 software titles list (Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - GameCube, Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - Nintendo Wii, New Super Mario Bros, and Yoshi's Island 2) in December. Take into account the difficulty of finding a Wii in time for Christmas, Nintendo definitely seems to have the biggest retail presence of Holiday 2006. November 16, 2006 Prediction: The PSP appears to be losing its luster this holiday. Outcome: TRUE PSP sales dropped dramatically from the sales numbers two years prior. The PSP-2000 (Slim) came out shortly after, however, which boosted sales. March 16, 2007 Prediction: Overall sales of next-gen consoles are weaker than this point in the previous cycle, and their sales could further disappoint. Outcome: FALSE While it is difficult to compare this generation to compare to the previous one, recent data from the UK showing that the PS3 is selling faster than the PS2 did, indicating that this cycle is plenty strong, at least for one console. March 16, 2007 Prediction: A price cut for the PS3 is critical, but likely won't happen until at least April 2007. Outcome: TRUE The words "at least" are what save Patel here. The price cut didn't happen until July. October 12, 2007 Prediction: VG Holdings should provide Electronic Arts with solid long-term content. Outcome: TRUE As the parent company of Bioware and Pandemic studios, it is likely that EA will benefit from having the two developers under its umbrella, with four as yet unspecified projects from Pandemic and an assortment of projects in the works from Bioware, including an upcoming partnership with Lucasarts. October 12, 2007 Prediction: The poor quality of EA products could translate into ongoing market share losses. Outcome: TRUE EA stayed fairly consistent in the markets around the $55 mark up to the end of the year, but has since dropped to below $45, closing last week at $44.57. October 19, 2007 Prediction: The PS2 may finally be on its way out of the industry for good. Outcome: FALSE The PS2 continues to outsell the PS3 - at least for now - and showed strong sales, moving 496,000 units in November, 1.1 million units in December (that's more than the PSP, as well). Combine that with the rumor of a $99 PS2 sometime this year, and it looks like the 7-year-old system still has some life in it yet. Accuracy: 6/10 Mitsuhiro Osawa - Mizuho Investors Securities Co. May 18, 2005 Prediction: The rush for digital cameras in Japan had its peak last year, and the US is about a year behind that. Outcome: FALSE Digital camera sales have picked up again in Japan. May 7, 2006 Prediction: Sony's business model of producing cell chips in volume will fail if they cannot sell PS3s in volume as well. Outcome: TRUE Apparently Sony's plan is faltering, as they have to keep changing what their strategy is. The term "business model" is kind of loose, since Sony seems to be changing it as often as some people change their socks, but I'm certainly not seeing any great payout to having the PS3 Cell chips produced in volume. August 31, 2006 Prediction: Canon stands to be the leading manufacturer of multifunction copiers for the next little while, following the release of their new models. Outcome: TRUE At the end of 2007, Canon was still the top copier manufacturer. November 10, 2006 Prediction: Sony won't be able to ship 6 million PS3s by the end of March 2007, because there won't be enough machines to go around. Outcome: FALSE Sony only managed to sell 4.28 million units by the end of March 2007, but it wasn't because there weren't enough machines. There were plenty to go around! People just didn't buy them. May 16, 2007 Prediction: Sony will make an operating profit (overall) of ¥380-400 billion this year. Outcome: FALSE At the end of Q3, Sony has already made a profit of ¥379.2 billion for FY2008 in operating income. It's very likely Sony will far exceed Osawa's expectations, as the lowest operating profit Sony pulled in a fiscal quarter was ¥90 billion, and January to March 2008 shouldn't be radically lower. May 16, 2007 Prediction: It remains to be seen whether Sony can turn around its losses in the game division. Outcome: TRUE Four months after this prediction, Sony is looking for help from its other divisions to help recoup their losses. Sony did see improved sales of the PS3 over the holiday season, but like Osawa said, whether it'll be too little too late to recoup its loses remains to be seen. May 16, 2007 Prediction: The key to success with the PS3 is launching a more cost-effective version with a 65-nanometer process technology, instead of the current 90-nanometer. Outcome: TRUE Following the sale of the Cell chip technology to Toshiba, the processor has become more cost effective with a 65-nanometer processor, but shrunk further to a 45-nanometer processor. September 4, 2007 Prediction: A price cut for the PS3 is one option to recover the faltering system. Outcome: TRUE The price cut this time around was Japan only, but since that's where Osawa is based, I think we can give him this one. October 26, 2007 Prediction: A lack of strong software titles will make it almost impossible for Sony to meet its target by the end of March 2008 of 11 million units globally. Outcome: TRUE While March 2008 hasn't arrived yet, it is looking unlikely. Sony still remains overly optimistic, but the Bloomberg report only pegs Sony at selling 8 million units worldwide. December 24, 2007 Prediction: Toshiba is losing its strong investment in the flat TV business. Outcome: FALSE With the release of this ultra-thin framed television, Toshiba appears to be continuing its innovation in the television industry. Accuracy: 6/10, but some were pretty wishy-washy, and some weren't about video games. Richard Doherty - Envisioneering Group August 8, 2005 Prediction: The PS3 release date will be on track with Sony's estimate of Q206. Outcome: TRUE The PS3 was released in North America November 17, 2006, which is in Sony's second fiscal quarter. September 14, 2005 Prediction: Whether the Xbox 360 launches Nov. 20 or Dec. 5, Microsoft will sell through every unit they can deliver before New Year's. Outcome: TRUE Xbox 360's were tough to come by around the holidays in 2005. November 4, 2005 Prediction: iTunes may no longer be compatible with the Xbox 360 following its launch, because the Xbox 360's interoperability with the iPod is not Apple-endorsed. Outcome: FALSE While none of Apple's FairPlay protected tracks work on the Xbox 360, they never would have in the first place. In terms of Doherty's suggestion that Apple would change iPod connectivity, that never happened. May 10, 2006 Prediction: The console war will be a challenge for Nintendo, because the PS3 may now have greater appeal to the same older people and non-gamers Nintendo is going after. Outcome: FALSE Nintendo has sold many, many more Wiis than Sony has sold PS3s, so other than not having enough to units to go around, Nintendo is doing fine. July 26, 2006 Prediction:Sony will take first place in the console war, with Nintendo possibly being able to take a few percentage points of the market share from Microsoft. Outcome: FALSE So, SO wrong. By the end of 2007, it was pretty clear that the PS3 was getting trounced in global lifetime sales. Midway through December 2007, global lifetime sales were as follows: Wii - 16.97 million units, Xbox 360 - 15.06 million units, PS3 - 7.75 million units. No matter how you slice it, the PS3 is not number one in any way. (In another interview in November, Doherty changes his prediction, instead saying that the PS3 will win at the end of the decade, or the halfway point of this console cycle.) November 14, 2006 Prediction: The PS3's glitches will be ironed out by Thanksgiving. Outcome: TRUE Sony offered a firmware update before the November 23 deadline that Doherty suggested. July 9, 2007 Prediction: Many of the sales that would have gone to the Xbox 360 will go to the PS3 following the PS3 price drop. Outcome: FALSE While this is kind of a "we'll never know for sure" sort of scenario, it doesn't look like the price drop of the PS3 crippled Xbox 360 sales. The PS3 went up 135% in units sold over the previous month, going from 81,600 units in May to 98,500 units in June. The Xbox 360 also went up in number of units sold, though, from 155,000 units in May to 198,400 in June. July 9, 2007 Prediction: BD+, the DRM in Blu-ray discs, won't be hacked for ten years. Outcome: FALSE Give hackers some more credit, Doherty! By November 2007, hackers had just about made it through the code, only six months after the release. July 9, 2007 Prediction: The $100 price cut of the PS3 will make it a lot more appealing to third party developers, and the discount will give Sony the advantage over the next six months. Outcome: FALSE The console price cut wasn't enough, as by November, Sony had to cut the price of their developer's kit in half in order to try and win back third party developers. July 10, 2007 Prediction: Nintendo and Sony will benefit in the coming months from the announcement of Microsoft extending the Xbox 360's warranty (due to unacceptable failure rates). Outcome: FALSE Microsoft craftily got around this by dropping the price of their system shortly after the announcements of the extended warranty and Sony dropping their price, so while Sony sold more PS3s than the previous month, the Xbox 360 didn't lose any ground. Accuracy: 3/10 Piers Harding-Rolls - Screen Digest December 14, 2006 Prediction: Sony will see a net income of around ¥80 billion by fiscal year end, March 2007. Outcome: FALSE Sony's net income for FY2006 was ¥126.3 billion, leaving Harding-Rolls' prediction short by nearly ¥40 billion. October 4, 2007 Prediction: Halo 3 will be a system seller over the next few months. Outcome: FALSE Halo 3 sold systems, but nothing record breaking. In fact, Holiday 2007 saw sales of the Xbox 360 fall below pre-Halo 3 levels. It might have sold more systems, but not as many as during the same period the previous year. December 18, 2007 Prediction: The Wii will win the console battle of Holiday 2007. Outcome: TRUE Gee, what a surprise, the Wii outsold the PS3 and the Xbox 360. Over the month of December, the Wii sold a total of 1.35 million units, with the Xbox 360 selling 1.26 million, and Sony claiming they sold 1.2 million. Piers Harding-Rolls' Future Predictions December 17, 2007 Prediction: Sony's exclusive content will result in better results for the PS3 in 2008. Outcome: PROBABLY TRUE The biggest struggle for the PS3 so far has been a lack of titles, and with upcoming PS3 exclusives announced, including big name series titles likeFinal Fantasy XIII, Gran Turismo 5, and Metal Gear Solid 4, it would be surprising if PS3 sales didn't pick up once these games are released. December 17, 2007 Prediction: Being "multimedia hubs" is key to Sony and Microsoft's strategies. Outcome: UNKNOWN It's likely that this would be part of their marketing strategy, as being a multimedia hub is one thing the best-selling Wii doesn't have. As for whether this is concrete enough to be provable, though, remains uncertain. December 28, 2007 Prediction: By 2011, sales for the PS3 will have caught up with the Wii, due in part to better games being available in 2008. Outcome: UNKNOWN This prediction is so far in the future, it will not only be unprovable for a while, but there is a solid likelihood people will forget about this prediction by the time it comes to fruition (or not). January 11, 2008 Prediction: 2008 will be a "golden year for games retail." Outcome: PROBABLY TRUE There's a decent offering of 2008 games from Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft, so it's likely that the gaming industry will likely have another strong year. One question, though - what exactly constitutes a "golden year"? January 11, 2008 Prediction: The reality of PS3 and Xbox 360 as multimedia hubs will happen in the next 12 months. Outcome: UNKNOWN At least this multimedia hub thing now has a date, something many of Harding-Rolls' predictions are lacking. It's still too early in the year to say if it will be true, and it really depends on what peripherals and support for the PS3 and Xbox 360 become available, too. January 11, 2008 Prediction: Good trading conditions for video game stocks will continue in 2008. Outcome: UNKNOWN This is a very broad, sweeping statement. With so many video game stocks out there, there will be fluctuations and changes in trading conditions throughout the year, as some publishers, developers, and retailers will have better years than others. January 11, 2008 Prediction: 2008 game sales will eclipse 2007 by "a vast margin." Outcome: UNKNOWN Who knows what "a vast margin" is. Millions? Billions? Even if this were provable now, there would be no way to give this a concrete true or false. Accuracy: 1/3, 7 not provable at this time Billy Pidgeon - IDC July 27, 2004 Prediction: The N-Gage QD will be a viable SKU in Nokia's line-up six months from now, but not in a year. Outcome: FALSE The N-Gage QD was "so popular", that they released the N-Gage QD Silver Edition in August 2005 for Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. September 29, 2004 Prediction: There is a huge unrealized potential in wireless games, and Jamdat is poised to continue to lead in the sector. Outcome: TRUE Jamdat was so impressive to EA, in fact, that EA bought Jamdat to lead its mobile game division. August 15, 2006 Prediction: World of Warcraft will inspire copycat games, but these will ultimately fail. Outcome: FALSE That may have been true, if it weren't for Lord of the Rings Online. While it doesn't have near the same number of subscribers as WoW, LOTRO became the #1 selling PC game in North America and Europe last May, only five months after the release of World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade. September 27, 2006 Prediction: Halo 2 will boast an array of capabilities (like the customizable maps and more) that will turn Xbox Live into a YouTube of self-made games. Outcome: FALSE TRUE (see update below) At the midway point of December 2007, Microsoft was still pushing for more user created content opportunities, leaving the impression that it's hardly the self-made utopia Pidgeon makes it out to be. UPDATE: It wasn't widely popularized in news articles, but according to Microsoft's press event at GDC, it was announced that 100,000 Halo 3 films are uploaded every day, 30% more than are uploaded to YouTube. The outcome of this one has definitely changed. October 19, 2007 Prediction: By the end of 2007, 14 million online console gamers will be active online in North America. Outcome: FALSE There are 10 million registered Xbox Live users, and two million registered PSN users, which falls just short of the prediction. There aren't any easily available numbers for the number of online players for the Wii, but that's mostly because there's been limited use of the Wii's online features up to this point, so assuming there would be as many online players as PSN would be far too generous. October 19, 2007 Prediction: In North America, online console revenue will triple from $133 million in 2006 to $583 million in 2007. Outcome: NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION Since this was made so close to the end of the year, there isn't any information available yet to determine if he's right or wrong, but since Mircosoft is putting so much hope in their online gaming service, you have to imagine that it's hoping to bring in an awful lot of money from the online services. October 19, 2007 Prediction: Video game console software sales through traditional third party online and retail stores will see a 19.5 percent revenue growth over 2006. Outcome: NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION Widespread information on online revenue is near-impossible to come by, and therefore cannot be proven at this time. October 21, 2007 Prediction: By 2008, over 37 million console units will be installed in North America with online capability. Outcome: FALSE This is a poorly worded prediction. Since he's talking about games being better than movies, you'd assume he were talking about home consoles, which totaled 19.78 million between the Wii, PS3, and Xbox 360. The number is so low, he can't possibly be talking about that. Throw in the PSP at 10.47 million units and the DS at 17.65 million units, and you total 47.9 million. So Pidgeon is either way over, or way under. We're going to assume he was talking about home consoles, and that makes him wrong. November 9, 2007 Prediction: The big third party developer winners for Holiday 2007 will be Activision, EA, Ubisoft, and Disney. Outcome: FALSE Activision, Electronic Arts, and Ubisoft all had games that placed in the top 10 of December, and were the only three third-party publishers to make it in. Disney, however, did not make that list. November 9, 2007 Prediction: The biggest sellers for each of the platforms over the holiday will be Mass Effect for Xbox 360, Super Mario Galaxy for Wii, and Ratchet & Clank for PS3. Outcome: FALSE The top 10 games list for the holidays didn't see any PS3 games make the list, but the Xbox 360 prediction was wrong, anyway, as Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare was the top seller for the system. Accuracy: 2/8, 2 not answerable at this time
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