Internet-movies Videos

Phil Leigh If you would like to learn just how rapidly consumers are gaining interest in obtaining unlimited Internet access on their TVs, this podcast is for you. We have long predicted that consumers will ultimately want unlimited Internet access of their TVs. It enables them to watch any Internet video in a lean-back viewing experience from their living room sofa. Moreover, given a remote mouse and keyboard, it empowers them to use the TV as a giant window into the Internet for any purpose, including e-mail, online shopping, or Web surfing. Since at least the start of this year we have repeatedly noted that consumers are discovering how to get such access by connecting their laptop computers to their TVs. It’s an “under the radar trend” not officially promoted by any of the computer makers, but appears to be getting exponentially more fashionable. In short, we believe the trend will become a “forcing factor” leading set manufacturers to offer either (1) browser-centric TVs, or (2) TVs with an abundance of free applications permitting users to watch videos from the associated Websites. The growing popularity is partly inferred by way of proxy. Specifically, last March we posted an instructional video on YouTube describing “How to Connect PC-to-TV”. Initially we were getting less than 30 views per day, but in October the daily average was about 135. That translates to a 26% compounded monthly increase despite a summer slow-down.  Put another way, traffic was doubling about every three months. If the trend continues, daily viewership could rise to 270 by the end of January and to over 500 by the end of next April. When new factors obtain a green-field opportunity, they tend to grow exponentially during the early periods. Examples include bacteria in a petri dish, influenza virus among people, members of a Ponzi scheme, and nuclear chain reactions. Technologies that eventually become mass market standards also exhibit exponential growth in early adopter phases. Examples include, radio, television, railroads, automobiles, portable phones, air travel, and many more. In our analysis, the growth in consumers attaching laptops to their TVs is also likely to be exponential. Whether the function is 26%-per-month, or some other pace, remains to be seen. One possibility is illustrated by the chart below which projects the viewership of our instructional video based upon the best-fitting exponential equation provided by Microsoft Excel software. Growth in Video Views: How to Connect PC-to-TV The exponential trend-line is defined by: Y = 1,059e (exp.)0.1683x where Y is the number of monthly views and X is the number of months since February, 2009.  The equation predicts that next March our instructional video will have 9,400 views as compared to 4,150 in October and 811 last March. While the increasing viewership of our instructional video is only a proxy, the numbers are large enough for statistical inference. In short, consumer interest in getting unlimited Internet access on their TVs is rapidly increasing. It is important to understand that others posted similar instructional videos at about the same time, meaning that ours is not the only proxy. For example, this one had traffic growth that was about 70% faster thereby implying that consumer interest in unrestricted Internet access at their TVs is increasing even more quickly than the above graph indicates.

Phil Leigh Will consumers pay to watch TV shows and movies at the hulu.com website? Hulu.com’s website hosts popular TV shows and movies after they have been released normally. Owners include Disney, NBC-Universal, and News Corporation (Fox). Viewers can watch shows for free but in exchange must also watch commercials since the videos are streamed and not downloaded. Last month, Chase Carey who is the President of News Corporation said that Hulu should start charging fees sometime next year. Presumably he envisions a premium subscription service providing more content or viewing time in exchange for a monthly fee. There are two reasons to be doubtful about the success of such a plan. First, as author Matt Ragas put it, “We all love the information highway, but we don’t want to pay a toll every five miles.” Second, incumbent media companies may be overvaluing their own content. Matt’s remark led me to examine my own subscriptions which are summarized in the accompanying table. Already I pay over $220 monthly for telephone, Internet, and video entertainment. Other services under consideration would advance the total to about $265 monthly.  Such an analysis makes me look for ways to cut, instead of add, services. Phil s Monthly Subscription Fees Naturally, I’ll focus on the bigger numbers first which come from the cable and wireless providers. However, if The Wall Street Journal (owned by News Corp)   editorial viewpoint prevails, the carriers will likely increase ISP fees even higher. That leaves consumers with thinner wallets to buy additional services from Hulu or anyone else. Even if cable and wireless charges don’t go up, consumers may calculate that they’re already paying enough in service fees. Readers of the Baltimore Sun seem to be strongly opposed to paying for hulu.com access. A polling button on the newspaper s website reveals that they voted 20-to-1 against it. You can see the results and review reader comments here. As for content value, the recent success of Paranormal Activity might serve as a reminder to media producers that we characteristically undervalue the works of people who are not like us. It’s reported that the movie was set in a single San Diego home and produced for $10,000. By the day after Halloween it had grossed over $80 million in box office receipts. Much like Internet publishing demolished the value of the printing press, low cost video cameras combined with computer-based film editing and an abundance of people seeking stardom and film-crew careers, necessitates an introspective reassessment of Hollywood’s self worth. Paranormal Activity is more than an isolated echo of The Blair Witch Project. Years from now we’ll look back to see it as data point in a connect-the-dots trend line pointing toward a future of content abundance. To learn more about how your business can exploit or adapt to thye future of media, feel welcome to contact us. You may also want to consider buying our research reports Third Generation Television and Future Developments in Video Advertising.

If you would like to learn why many industry observers underestimate the potential for streamed movie rentals from YouTube, this audio is for you. Recently The Wall Street Journal revealed that YouTube is in discussions with selected Hollywood Studios to offer movie rentals as streams. While a number of industry observers conclude there’s not much opportunity here, we disagree. The pessimists gravitate toward three arguments. First, they suggest that few consumers will pay to watch rentals on a computer screen. Second, they conclude that the video quality of streamed-through-the-browser video will not be good enough. Third, they assume that few YouTube users will pay for content. The first argument ignores that 10 million Americans have connected computers to their TVs in order to watch Internet Video on a large screen. In our analysis, YouTube movie rental availability will accelerate the growth of this “under the radar” trend. In the typical configuration a laptop computer is attached to the TV thereby acting as the TV’s Internet Gateway over a WiFi home network. Given a wireless mouse and keyboard the user gets a lean-back viewing experience 15 – 20 feet distant from the screen. Generally, only the uninitiated assume the set-up is too geeky as documented by numerous  instructional videos.  Ultimately the laptop-as-Internet-Gateway becomes a forcing-factor leading to a new form factor such as browser centric televisions. Upon examination the poor picture quality argument also falls flat. One reason is that YouTube recently started permitting users to upload high quality video formats. No doubt, the attraction of premium content was one motivation. More importantly, to a great many viewers the “instant on” characteristic of streamed-within-a-browser video trumps the marginally improved picture quality of a time consuming download. Once people decide they want to watch a movie, they want it “right now”. Unless they’re using a monstrously large screen there’s little discernable video quality difference anyway. The picture quality argument is echoes disparaging MP3 comments from the record labels. To their regret the labels learned that convenience trumps quality. Finally the viewpoint that YouTube users won’t pay for rentals merely because they previously haven’t ignores the concept of the “latent market”. The analysis is much like the one that prominent consultants provided IBM in the 1950s when they advised the office equipment maker to avoid investing in Xerox. Specifically, Arthur D. Little reasoned that since the entire office copying market at the time was about $200 million, Haloid-Xerox stock was overpriced even if they captured a 100% share. The consultants failed to realize that the market for copies on plain paper was gigantic by comparison to the chemically treated paper copies previously available. In his memoir, My Years With Xerox the R & D chief at the time explained that Xerox repeatedly faced such skepticism when it sought business partners. He characterized the company’s journey as “the billions nobody wanted” and employed the expression as a subtitle for his book. About a decade later, Forbes Magazine listed Chester Carlson, who invented xerography, as one of the World’s wealthiest men. Years afterward Carlson’s widow corrected Forbes and explained that he anonymously gave away most of their money over the years.  But that’s another story, and a good one. In short, a better measure for the potential dimensions of a YouTube movie rental market is the annual DVD rentals business which approximates $4 - $5 billion in the U.S. alone. The added convenience of getting movies “right now” from our living room sofa adds a considerable “latent market”. The YouTube community is huge and constantly hungers for new content. Google claims that search queries on YouTube make it the second largest search engine. Such points are obvious to those routinely watching YouTube videos on their TVs.

Download to iPod or iPhone If you would like to learn how to watch movies on your TV that were downloaded to your iPhone, this video is for you. Every iPod or iPhone owner knows they can buy digital music at Apple’s iTunes online store. Most also realize they can rent or purchase movies and TV shows there as well. Finally, many are aware that numerous free video and audio podcasts, some including popular TV shows, are also available. However, few understand that it is not difficult use iPods and iPhones to watch the movies stored on the portable units through a conventional flat panel TV. Today’s video shows how to do it. Apple sells two types of cable assemblies that can connect the iPhone and iPod to a TV. One is termed Component and the other Composite. The Component assembly provides a higher quality picture, but it also uses more jacks. Both assemblies retail for $50. At first glance, the wiring looks complicated for two reasons. First, it is best to provide an external power supply to the portable devices so they don’t drain their batteries. Second, and more importantly, Apple does not support the HDMI standard which can transport video and audio over a single cable. Thus, while both audio and video exit the iPhone and iPod from a single socket the constituent signals must be delivered separately to the TV. In the Composite assembly video is input to the TV via a single wire and audio enters as a stereo signal via two more wires. The Component assembly inputs the video to the TV with three wires (one for each primary color) and also uses two pins for stereo audio. A textual description makes it seem more difficult that it actually is. That is why we urge you to watch the video. The fact that consumers can easily play through a television the movies and TV shows they downloaded on their iPhones and iPods has further implications. The public is becoming increasingly aware that the flat panel TV can also readily function as a giant monitor for a variety of Internet-connected devices. In addition to iPods and iPhones, other popular examples are laptop computers, video games, and specialized appliances like Roku. Ultimately this has profound implications because it induces a trend toward more frequent viewing of Internet Video on the TV.

If you would like to learn how to watch movies on your TV that were downloaded to your iPhone, this video is for you.Every iPod or iPhone owner knows they can buy digital music at Apple s iTunes online store. Most also realize they can rent or purchase movies and TV shows there as well. Finally, many are aware that numerous free video and audio podcasts, some including popular TV shows, are also available. However, few understand that it is not difficult use iPods and iPhones to watch the movies stored on the portable units through a conventional flat panel TV.Today s video shows how to do it. Apple sells two types of cable assemblies that can connect the iPhone and iPod to a TV. One is termed Component and the other Composite. The Component assembly provides a higher quality picture, but it also uses more jacks. Both assemblies retail for $50. At first glance, the wiring looks complicated for two reasons. First, it is best to provide an external power supply to the portable devices so they don t drain their batteries. Second, and more importantly, Apple does not support the HDMI standard which can transport video and audio over a single cable. Thus, while both audio and video exit the iPhone and iPod from a single socket the constituent signals must be delivered separately to the TV. In the Composite assembly video is input to the TV via a single wire and audio enters as a stereo signal via two more wires. The Component assembly inputs the video to the TV with three wires (one for each primary color) and also uses two pins for stereo audio.A textual description makes it seem more difficult that it actually is. That is why we urge you to watch the video.

[See post to watch Flash video] Download to iPod and iPhone If you would like to learn how a successful college student produces movies and uses the Internet to organize his workforce, publicize the film release, and distribute the film itself, this interview is for you. Our guest today is Jesse Newman who is a college senior at the University of South Florida. He is also a budding film director who has achieved notoriety on a national basis. For example, of the 750 films submitted in Florida to the national CampusMovieFest competition earlier this year, his was rated number one. The film moved on to become one of the top twenty in the United States. Owing to the film’s success, Jesse was chosen to intern at the Cannes Film Festival. Jesse is a devoted Apple fanboy. He created his professional-looking website using the iWeb software that is included with all Apple computers. Jesse claims that iWeb is so easy to use that nearly anyone can create websites as professional-looking as www.jessenewmanfilms.com. His website and associated media files are hosted by the Apple Mobile Me service for which he pays $100 per year. In addition to being an incipient film director and full time college student, Jesse works 30-hours weeks in sales at the local Apple store where I met him. For now, Jesse is focused on getting ready for his next CampusMovieFest competition. He needs to submit a new film in February. I found it fascinating to learn how Jesse is getting organized. (As a point of disclosure Campus Movie Fest is associated with Apple.) One way was to invite his Facebook to join him in the project. He received over 200 responses for actors, actresses, cinematography and other specialists. None are expecting to get paid, but want to do the work for the experience and public exposure. Jesse also believes that Facebook is a good way to stimulate interest in his films and he has about 700 friends.  To enhance distribution of his films, Jesse has his own channel at YouTube.com. Often he even uses the YouTube “embed code” to place his movies on his Mobile Me website thereby avoiding the need to host the media files at Apple.  Length: This video interview is about 10 minutes long.

[See post to watch Flash video] Download to iPod and iPhone If you would like to learn how a successful college student produces movies and uses the Internet to organize his workforce, publicize the film release, and distribute the film itself, this interview is for you. Our guest today is Jesse Newman who is a college senior at the University of South Florida. He is also a budding film director who has achieved notoriety on a national basis. For example, of the 750 films submitted in Florida to the national CampusMovieFest competition earlier this year, his was rated number one. The film moved on to become one of the top twenty in the United States. Owing to the film’s success, Jesse was chosen to intern at the Cannes Film Festival. (more )